Key Events: A new sheriff in town
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled some changes at his first FOMC meeting: he declined to provide his own “dot plot” expectation of future rates while suggesting the FOMC would provide less forward guidance. Meanwhile, the board signaled a hawkish shift in rates.
Plenty of obstacles remain but talks to end the Iran war made progress over the week.
Market review: Equities shake off the hawkish Fed
Oil declined almost 10% as relief over a potential end to the Iran war rippled through markets and global equities held gains despite the hawkish positioning of the new Fed chair. Emerging markets stocks showed the strongest gains as the Iran peace deal provided further catalyst to momentum-driven AI gains, while bonds remained steady, having already priced in rate hikes.
Outlook: Task forces for the Fed, more ETFs for SpaceX
Mr. Warsh’s revamp of the Fed involves the creation of five task forces to study areas such as how the Fed processes information and how it communicates. These changes have caused uncertainty but not surrounding the direction of rates – the market expects two hikes in the next year; a July rate hike is a coin flip.
Despite expectations for higher rates, momentum in stocks continues as a dozen or more SpaceX ETFs have already launched – as many SPCX as Bitcoin ETFs exist, despite a two-year head start for the Bitcoin products.1
While this may signal Euphoria in SpaceX, there is reason to be optimistic despite concentrated stock market performance; technology earnings estimates have grown faster than stock price performance in 2026, leading to a reduction in PE ratio.
All this may lead some to doubt their conviction. We counsel investors to maintain discipline and follow your plan; diversification allows one to capture opportunities beyond the hype.
Stocks rally despite expectations for rate hikes
OneAscent Navigator Outlook: June 2026
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1) Source: Bloomberg. The first Bitcoin ETF was launched in January 2024.
2) Market Returns reference the following indices: Large Cap – S&P 500, Mid Cap Growth – Russell Midcap growth, Mid Cap Value – Russell Midcap Value, Small Cap – Russell 2000, Developed – MSCI EAFE, Emerging – MSCI Emerging Markets, Aggregate – Bloomberg US Aggregate, High Yield – Bloomberg High Yield